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GBPUSD: Sideways Range Break Out Highlights Prospect For The 1.5276 Level
GBPUSD: Having finally pushed through its Oct 13’09 low/range lows at 1.5706 the past week, we are now looking for further downside weakness towards its major support at the 1.5276 level, its .50 Fib Ret(1.3501-1.7041 rally). Before here lies a minor support at the 1.5351 level, its May 12’09 high. With two attempts to resume its medium term uptrend failing in Aug’09 and Nov’09, the pair collapsed to a low of 1.5830 in late Dec’09 before backing off to recover to a high of 1.6456 on Jan 19’10. That recovery subsequently faded and GBP turned lower again culminating in the break of the 1.5706 level on Friday which has resumed its short term weakness. Risk as highlighted above points towards the 1.5276 level with a break pushing the pair further lower towards its early May’09 low at 1.5057 and then its .618 Fib Ret(1.3601-1.7041 rally) at 1.4858. Its pattern break out target resides at the 1.4371 level established by measuring the width of the range and projecting it from the breakout point. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. On the other hand, on any recovery from its present price levels, its eroded support at the 1.5706 level is expected to reverse roles and provide resistance. Further out, its Dec 30’09 low at 1.5830 level and the 1.6068 level, its Feb 03’10 high are see as the next upside objectives. Weekly Chart: GBPUSD 
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EURUSD: On The Tear For The 13422 Level. EURUSD: With a clean violation of its July 08’09 low at 1.3831 and the 1.3747/33 levels, its Jun 16’09 low/.50 retracement(1.2328-1.5143 rally) established, risk of further weakness has scope towards the 1.3422 level, its .61 Fib retracement/May 18’09 low at 1.3422/09. However, our bearish view on EUR may be tempered with a corrective recovery following its fourth consecutive week of sell off initiated from the 1.4578 level on Jan 13’10 high. If the 1.3422/09 level is seen first, further price extension should target its Jun 03’09 low at 1.3211 and may be even lower. Its weekly and monthly studies are bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the contrary, if corrective recovery is triggered from the current price levels, the 1.3747/33 levels will be aimed at first followed by the 1.3831 level. We expect a combination of these two levels to reverse roles and provide resistance thereby turning the pair lower again. Other upside objectives are located at the 1.4000 level and the 1.4028/44 levels, its Jan 21’10/Aug 17’09 lows.
GBPUSD: Holds Above The 1.6234/39 Levels With Caution
GBPUSD: Immediate risk has turned to the upside having broken and held above its key overhead resistance at the 1.6234/39 levels, its Dec 31’09/Jan 04’10 highs. Though failing to follow through higher on the back of its Thursday strength on Friday, the caveat is as long as the pair holds above the 1.6234/39 levels, threats remain to the upside towards the 1.6409 level, its Dec 16’09 high where a cap may be seen thereby turning the pair lower. However, decisively violating that level will mean additional upside gains towards its Nov 25’09 high at 1.6744 and the 1.6875 level, its Nov 16’0-09 high ahead of its 2009 high at 1.7041 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Conversely, we are watching to see if the pair will follow through to the downside as we enter a new week and if it does by breaking below the 1.6234/39 levels, then we will reverse our upside view as further weakness should shape up towards its Jan 12’10 low at 1.6060. A clearance of there will pave the way for further downside losses towards its Dec 30’09 low at 1.5830 ahead of the 1.5706 level, its Oct 13’09 low where a sustained break will see a 100% price retracement (from 1.5706- 1.6875 levels) and open the door for additional downside pressure towards its .50 Ret (1.3501-1.7041 rally) at 1.5273. This view is consistent with its short term downtrend activated from the 1.7041 level. In the bigger picture, GBP remains in a consolidation range between the 1.7041 and the 1.5706 levels and a break either way must be established to create meaningful directional moves. Weekly Chart: EURUSD 
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