Research & Commentary | FXTechstrategy


EURUSD: Weakens On Price Failure.


EURUSD: While EUR has backed off higher prices and is now vulnerable, it will have to violate the 1.2132/17 levels to signal  that a resumption of its medium term weakness is underway. A violation of here will call for a move further lower towards the 1.2040 level. Below here should target the 1.2000 level, its big psycho level. We expect EUR to face price hesitation ahead of or at this level. This could see it back off higher but if that level is breached, the pair should weaken further towards the 1.1950 level. The alternative scenario will be for the pair to return above the 1.2407 level. This will trigger its corrective recovery towards the 1.2482 level, its .618 Fib Ret and then the 1.2500 level. All in all, EUR now faces corrective recovery risks.



AUDUSD:  Sees Bearish Momentum, Downside Risk Turns To The 0.9536 Level.
AUDUSD:  With a clearance of the 1,702 level, its Mar’2011 low seen the past week and a follow through lower now underway, further downside risk has turned to its key support located at the 0.9536 level, its Nov’2010 low. AUDUSD has been under bear pressure since capping its long term uptrend at the 1.1078 level in July’2011 low. On a decisive break of the 0.9536 level,  the 0.9360 level, its Sept 20’2011 low will be targeted and subsequently the 0.9127 level, its weekly 200 ema. Both its daily and weekly RSI are bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. On the upside, a recovery if triggered will have to break and close above the 0.9926 level, its Aug 09’2011 low to put its present weakness on hold and bring gains towards the 1.0110 level, its Aug 11’2011 low and next the 1.0339 level, its Sept 16’2011 high. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside in the short term as it looks to weaken further.

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