AUDUSD- While long term outlook on AUDUSD remains to the upside, in the short term, downside pressure looks to continue. This is coming on the back of a loss of upside momentum at 1.1009 and its subsequent collapse now in its second month. On continued weakness, we are looking for the pair to weaken further towards the 1.0287 level, its April 03’2011 low. Further down, support lies at its psycho level at 1.0000 where a halt is likely to occur and turn the pair back up in the direction of its long term uptrend. However, if the 1.0000 level breaks, further declines should develop towards its Mar’2011 low at 0.9702. Its weekly and monthly RSI are bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, the pair will have to climb above the 1.1009 level to end its present bear pressure. This will trigger further upside gains towards the 1.3000 level and next the 1.5000 level, all representing its psycho levels. All in all, the pair remains under pressure and looks to weaken further.
AUDUSD: Broadly Biased To The Upside Long-Term.
AUDUSD- With AUDUSD taking back most of Jan’2011 losses to close higher in Feb’2011, we see further upside risk building up towards the year 1.0253, its 2010 high in Mar’2011. While the pair holds above the 0.9849 level, its 2008 high, the above view remains valid for an eventual violation of the 1.0253 level. Beyond that level will resume the pair’s long term uptrend and pave the way for a run at the 1.0300 level. Further out, resistance lies at the 1.0500 level and then the 1.0600 level, marking its psycho levels. On pullbacks, the pair should target the 0.9943 level, its Feb 15’2011 low with a decisive break of that level turning focus to the 0.9849 level, its 2008 high. That level should reverse roles and provide support thus turning the pair back up again. Further down, support lies at the 0.9404 level, the location of its Nov’2009 high. This level preserves its bullish tone set from the 0.6008 level in 2008 and its break will signal deeper correction towards its Sept 2010 low at 0.9053 level. Overall, we hold our bullish long-term view on AUDUSD and see the possibility of a return above the 1.0253 level and beyond.
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